What It Takes to Buy a Home in the ACT, Illawarra and Riverina: 2026 Lending Report

At today’s rates, a household needs between about $139,000 and $278,000 a year to buy the median house in the ACT–Illawarra–Riverina corridor without spending more than 30% of its income on repayments. In every one of the ten areas in this report, that is more than the local median household earns. Units tell a different story: in Wagga Wagga, Canberra and Queanbeyan, a median household can still afford the median unit. This report sets out the numbers for each area, how they were worked out, and what a lender sees that the averages miss.

Last reviewed: 24 October 2026. Prices are for January to March 2026 (NSW) and April to June 2026 (ACT); rents are for April to June 2026. The interest rate reflects the RBA’s 29 September 2026 rise. I will update the figures after the RBA’s 3 November meeting.

Key findings

• No median house is affordable on a median income. The income needed ranges from 1.3 times the local median household income in Griffith to 2.7 times in the Southern Highlands.
• The Illawarra and Southern Highlands are the hardest. Repayments on the median house would take 81% of the median household’s income in the Southern Highlands and 75% in Wollongong.
• Griffith, Snowy Monaro and Wagga Wagga are the most affordable places to buy a house in the corridor, once local incomes are taken into account.
• Units are within reach in three areas. The median unit needs less than the local median household income in Queanbeyan-Palerang (0.7 times), Canberra (0.8 times) and Wagga Wagga (0.9 times).
• Buying costs more than renting everywhere. The weekly gap between repayments on the median house and the median rent runs from about $200 in Snowy Monaro to $855 in the Southern Highlands.
• Each 0.25% rate move changes the income needed for the median house by about $3,500 a year in Snowy Monaro and Griffith, and about $7,000 in the Southern Highlands.

The corridor in 2026: prices and rents

This report covers ten areas: Canberra, Queanbeyan-Palerang, Wollongong, Shellharbour, the Southern Highlands (Wingecarribee), Goulburn Mulwaree, Wagga Wagga, Griffith, Albury and Snowy Monaro. NSW prices and rents come from the NSW Government’s Rent and Sales Report. “Houses” are non-strata dwellings and “units” are strata dwellings. Canberra figures come from Domain.

* Based on 30 or fewer sales or new bonds, so treat with caution. n/a: too few sales for a median to be published. Canberra rents are median asking rents; NSW rents are medians for new bonds lodged.

The income you need

The table below shows the household income needed so that repayments on the median home take no more than 30% of gross income. It assumes a 30-year principal and interest loan at 7.05%, with a 20% deposit or a 5% deposit. A lower deposit means a bigger loan, so the income needed rises by about 19%.

Affordability ranking

Raw prices only tell half the story, because incomes differ so much across the corridor. Canberra and Queanbeyan have the highest incomes; Albury and Goulburn have the lowest. Ranked by how far the income needed is from what local households earn, the corridor looks like this:

Canberra and Queanbeyan sit almost level: Canberra’s houses cost more, but its incomes are higher too. The Illawarra and the Southern Highlands are in a different league: house prices there are 10 to 13 times local household incomes, against 6 to 8 times in the rest of the corridor.

Renting versus buying

In every area, the weekly repayment on the median house with a 20% deposit is higher than the median house rent. That does not make renting the better choice, because repayments build equity and rent does not, but it shows how much more a first-home buyer has to find each week.

What a rate move does

Every 0.25% change in the variable rate shifts the income needed for the median house. The second column shows what the income needed would be if repayments were tested at 3% above the actual rate, the buffer APRA expects lenders to use. That is not how banks actually assess a loan (they look at your net income and expenses, not 30% of gross), but it shows how much tighter the picture is under stress.

The 5% Deposit Scheme: which medians qualify

The government’s 5% Deposit Scheme lets eligible first-home buyers purchase with a 5% deposit without paying Lenders Mortgage Insurance, up to a price cap. Since 1 October 2025 the caps are $1.5 million in Sydney and the NSW regional centres (the Illawarra, Newcastle and Lake Macquarie), $800,000 elsewhere in NSW, and $1 million in the ACT.

The median Canberra house sits just above the ACT cap, and the median house in Queanbeyan-Palerang and the Southern Highlands is above the $800,000 NSW cap. On our reading the Southern Highlands is not one of the named regional centres; check with Housing Australia or a participating lender for a specific property. Below the median, plenty of homes in all three areas still fall under the caps. For how the scheme works at auction, see using the 5% Deposit Scheme at auction.

What the averages miss: the lender’s view

A median and a 30% rule are a fair way to compare areas. They are not how an application is assessed, and in a regional corridor the gap between the two can be large.

• Lenders assess your actual household, not a median one. A bank looks at your net income, your declared expenses (tested against a living-expense benchmark), your existing debts, and a repayment tested at a buffer above the actual rate. Two households on the same income can get very different answers. What a lender sees when it assesses your budget explains how.
• Not all income counts the same. Farm, seasonal and self-employed income is usually averaged over two years and sometimes shaded, which matters in the Riverina, the MIA and the Snowy. See Riverina serviceability, Griffith and the MIA, Snowy Monaro and self-employed home loans.
• Canberra’s incomes are high but not uniform. Public service contracts, higher duties and allowances can be treated differently from base salary. See Canberra’s public servants and serviceability.
• The valuation, not the price, sets the loan. In smaller towns and on acreage there are fewer comparable sales, so valuations can come in short of the price. See bank valuation vs market price.
• Medians move with the mix of sales. In a small market such as Griffith, with 58 house sales in the quarter, a handful of larger homes can move the median. Treat one quarter’s figure as a guide, not a fixed price.
• Upfront costs are not in these numbers. Stamp duty, legal fees and moving costs come on top of the deposit. First-home buyer concessions in NSW and the ACT can reduce or remove stamp duty below certain prices.

How the numbers were worked out

• Prices and rents: NSW Government Rent and Sales Report (Department of Communities and Justice): median sale prices for January to March 2026 and median weekly rents on new bonds for April to June 2026, by local government area. Houses are non-strata dwellings and units are strata dwellings. Canberra: Domain House Price Report and Domain Rental Report, June quarter 2026 (rents are median asking rents).
• Interest rate: the RBA’s indicator rate for banks’ discounted variable owner-occupier loans (table F5) was 6.80% at 30 September 2026, before the 29 September cash rate rise reached lenders’ rates. I added 0.25% to give 7.05%. Your rate may be higher or lower.
• Repayments: a 30-year principal and interest loan, monthly repayments, for 80% (20% deposit) or 95% (5% deposit) of the median price. Lenders Mortgage Insurance and upfront costs are not included.
• Affordability test: repayments of no more than 30% of gross household income, the standard benchmark for housing stress. It is a comparison tool, not a lender’s serviceability calculator.
• Local incomes: median weekly household income from the ABS 2021 Census QuickStats for each area, brought forward to 2026 using the growth in the ABS Wage Price Index from June 2021 to June 2026 (18.2%). These are estimates. Because the Census was in August 2021, the uplift is slightly generous. Household medians include retirees and renters, so they will understate the typical buyer’s income.
• Limits: NSW and ACT figures come from different sources and periods. Some medians rest on small numbers of sales or bonds (marked *). Medians shift with the mix of properties sold.

A downloadable spreadsheet of every figure in this report is available on request through the contact page.

Sources

• NSW Department of Communities and Justice, Rent and Sales Report: sales tables (March quarter 2026) and rent tables (June quarter 2026).
• Domain House Price Report, June 2026 and Domain Rental Report, June 2026 (Canberra).
• Reserve Bank of Australia, table F5 Indicator Lending Rates.
• ABS 2021 Census QuickStats by local government area, and the ABS Wage Price Index, June 2026.
• Housing Australia, 5% Deposit Scheme price caps from 1 October 2025.

For the wider picture, see The Long Boom: a history of Australian house prices and the ACT–Illawarra–Riverina corridor hub. How posts on this site are checked is explained on the Sources page.

This report is general information, not financial or credit advice. It uses medians and a simple affordability benchmark to compare areas; it does not tell you what you can borrow. Speak to a lender or broker about your own situation.

Written by Michael Wignall, who’s spent 30+ years in banking and home lending across the ACT, Illawarra, and Riverina regions of NSW.

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Written by Michael Wignall, Lending Area Manager with 30+ years in banking and home lending across the ACT, Illawarra, and Riverina. Got a question or an idea for a post? Get in touch.