Regional NSW and ACT Property in 2024: The Market Before Rates Rose

Update, September 2026: This piece was written in mid-2024 and expected RBA rate cuts to spur housing activity later that year. That’s not what happened — the RBA cut three times in 2025, then raised rates four times in 2026, taking the cash rate to 4.60% at the end of September 2026 (RBA). The regional NSW and ACT market snapshot below reflects conditions as understood in 2024 and hasn’t been updated for the current rate environment. For the current picture on rates, see Why Rates Rose When Everyone Expected Cuts.

This is a snapshot of how property in regional NSW and the ACT looked in the first half of 2024, drawn mostly from CoreLogic’s (now Cotality) Home Value Index. I’ve kept it as a record of that market, not as a guide to this one.

Sustained Momentum: Regional NSW’s Upward Trajectory

Against the backdrop of Sydney’s buoyant market, Regional NSW carved its own path, demonstrating a steady upward trajectory in property values. The first quarter of 2024 witnessed a notable 1.1% rise in dwelling values across the region, marking the twelfth consecutive month of growth at the time. This positive momentum was a testament to the region’s enduring appeal and the persistent demand-side pressure fuelled by a restricted supply of available properties.

While Regional NSW’s housing market had experienced a temporary dip of 4.3% from its previous peak in May 2022, the upswing at the time signalled a resilient recovery. With dwelling values then well above where they were at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, Regional NSW had emerged as a compelling destination for homebuyers and investors alike.

Diverse Regional Hotspots: Where Opportunities Abound

Within the tapestry of Regional NSW, several pockets emerged as rising stars, offering a diverse array of investment and lifestyle prospects. Areas such as Charlestown, Dapto, Coffs Harbour, East Gosford, Heddon Greta, New Lambton, Nowra, Shell Cove, Tweed Heads West, and Woonona captured the attention of discerning buyers and investors.

Each of these regions boasts unique attributes that contribute to their allure. From the coastal charm of Coffs Harbour and Woonona to the affordability and solid capital growth potential of Heddon Greta and Nowra, these locales cater to a wide range of preferences and budgetary considerations.

Rental Market Dynamics: Tight Vacancies and Rising Yields

The rental market in Regional NSW was, at the time, a focal point, characterised by near-record low vacancy rates and rising rental yields. With a combined regional vacancy rate of 1.2%, the scarcity of available rental properties had placed upward pressure on rental values.

Investors in Regional NSW at the time could take solace in the positive outlook, with the region boasting a gross annual rental yield of 4.1%, and rents having increased by 3.9% over the preceding twelve months.

Canberra’s Steady Stride: Moderate Growth Amidst Stability

While Regional NSW captivated with its diverse offerings, the ACT market carved its own niche, showcasing a steady stride and moderate growth amidst stability at the time. Canberra’s property market had witnessed a modest 1.2% rise in house prices over the prior year, with unit prices experiencing a slight 3% decline over the same period.

More Listings Were Met by More Buyers

As the regional property markets continued to evolve, the interplay between supply and demand remained a pivotal factor shaping their trajectories. Across Regional NSW and the ACT, the influx of new listings and total listings on the market had increased, providing prospective buyers with a wider array of choices.

This surge in supply was met with a corresponding rise in sales volumes, indicating robust demand for properties in these regions at the time.

Population Growth Was Driving Regional Demand

One of the driving forces behind the regional property market’s momentum at the time was demographic shifts and population growth, with the nation’s population increasing by 2.5% for the year ending September 2023, according to the ABS.

Regional NSW and the ACT were beneficiaries of this trend, attracting a significant influx of new residents seeking the allure of regional living, employment opportunities, and affordable housing options.

Affordability Concerns and Market Accessibility

While the regional property markets presented enticing opportunities, affordability remained a pressing concern. Affordability was already stretched in 2024. With the cash rate now higher than it was then, serviceability — how much a lender will let you borrow once its interest-rate buffer is added — is tighter again in 2026.

Tight Vacancies Made Regional Rentals Attractive to Investors

For investors, the regional property markets of NSW and the ACT offered a compelling proposition at the time, with rental yields on the rise and vacancy rates remaining tight. Investors were encouraged to be careful, carefully evaluating property locations, rental demand, and long-term growth prospects.

Government Initiatives and Housing Supply Targets

The federal government’s target to build 1.2 million new homes by 2029 continues to draw attention, with the pace of delivery in most states still lagging the original goal as of 2026.

Interest Rate Fluctuations and Market Resilience: What Actually Happened

This is the section that needed the biggest correction. At the time of writing, the cash rate stood at 4.35% and market participants were eagerly awaiting potential rate cuts to bolster consumer sentiment in the latter part of 2024. Instead, the RBA cut three times in 2025, taking the cash rate to 3.60%, then raised it four times in 2026, taking it to 4.60% by the end of September 2026 — higher than when this piece was written. The resilience of the regional NSW and ACT markets discussed above should be read with that reversal in mind — the tailwind of expected rate relief simply didn’t arrive.

Sustainable Growth and Long-term Prospects

The fundamentals discussed above — demographic shifts toward regional living, supply constraints, and lifestyle appeal — remain relevant, even though the interest rate backdrop turned out very differently to what was expected in 2024.

Use Current Rates and Data, Not the 2024 Outlook

The 2024 real estate landscape in Regional NSW and the ACT, as described above, was one of resilience and opportunity built on an expectation of falling rates. That expectation didn’t hold — rates rose instead through 2026. The underlying regional appeal of these markets remains a reasonable starting point for research today, but any decision should be based on current rates and current data, not the 2024 outlook captured in this piece.

Written by Michael Wignall, who’s spent 30+ years in banking and home lending across the ACT, Illawarra, and Riverina regions of NSW.

Related Reading

• Why Rates Rose When Everyone Expected Cuts (And What Borrowers Should Do Now) — the current, accurate picture of the 2026 rate cycle
• Canberra Property Market 2026: Rate Rises, Not Cuts, Reshape the Outlook — an up-to-date look at the ACT market specifically
• The ACT–Illawarra–Riverina Corridor: Regional NSW Property and Lending — every post on the corridor in one place

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Written by Michael Wignall, Lending Area Manager with 30+ years in banking and home lending across the ACT, Illawarra, and Riverina. Got a question or an idea for a post? Get in touch.