Mixed Fortunes for Canberra and Southern NSW Housing

The latest CoreLogic home value index shows varied results for Canberra and surrounding NSW regions in 2023. While some markets moderated, others showed surprising resilience.

Canberra Downshifts After Historic Highs

The ACT housing market had soared to record peaks during the pandemic rush. But rising rates and declining affordability have now cooled demand. Home values grew just 0.5% for the year – well behind major capitals like Sydney and Melbourne.

Drilling down, new greenfield areas like Molonglo in the south outpaced established suburbs. Units lagged houses, signalling weakened investor appetite. Rental growth also slowed to just 0.1% for units while houses managed 2.6% – anaemic results compared to past years.

Southern NSW Coast vs Inland

In Southern NSW, moderate 2-3% growth along the coast contrasts with stronger inland towns. Prices in sites adjoining the ACT – like Queanbeyan and the Snowy Mountains plateaued. But Eurobodalla values sank 2.4%, impacted by low tourism.

By comparison, Wagga Wagga saw healthy growth of 5%. Smaller inland towns like Young and Griffith rose over 4% and nearly 3% respectively. This indicates the more affordable end of the market is upheld by solid demand.

Rental Falls Across Much of Southern NSW

Another trend is declining rents across Southern NSW after COVID-driven shortages eased. Coastal areas saw larger falls, including -5.3% in Eurobodalla, -4.2% around Snowy Mountains and -1.8% in Queanbeyan. Inland rental drops were gentler, at just -0.3% in Wagga and -0.4% in Griffith.

Overall Picture

In summary, while Canberra and some Southern NSW coastal areas have downshifted from their historic pandemic highs, recent dips may present opportunities for savvy homebuyers to enter rising inland markets.

Towns like Wagga Wagga, Young, and Griffith still show healthy growth and more room for uplift as buyers seek affordability. With interest rates potentially having peaked, those looking to get a foothold on the property ladder may strategically target these resilient inland regions in 2024.

Population shifts towards regional Australia are ongoing trends independent of market cycles. Astute investors have time to consider value offerings across Southern NSW before a wider market rebound emerges. Any uptick in migration or tourism could also disproportionately benefit lagging coastal locales.

So while higher rates and inflation have taken steam out of former hotspots, the diverse results across Canberra and NSW showcase both pockets of strength and tempting bargains emerging for the year ahead.